What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.100?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 57¢ (57% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 27, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.100?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 11365.1% and 14452.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.100?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $4.100?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.100?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026.

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57¢

Bid/Ask 57/64¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $6,770.01·OI $8,312.01·Closes Apr 27, 2026·3d remaining

KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.100

7-day price291 snapshots · 56 regime

63¢60¢ current

Apr 202¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.100 on Apr 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 11365.1%

IY (No) 14452.1%

Adj IY 12271%

CRI 1

RV 3535%

VR 1.38

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	11365.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14452.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12271%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3535%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.38	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.15	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 7:51:03 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 7:38:16 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.100 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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