Will average gas prices be above $3.975
Leader sits at 96% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.315
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above 4.305
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$49K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above $4.3
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.330?: Above 4.330
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.330
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.335?: Above 4.335
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.335
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.340?: Above 4.340
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.340
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.345?: Above 4.345
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.345
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.325?: Above 4.325
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.325
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.315?: Above 4.315
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.315
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.320?: Above 4.320
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.320
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.305?: Above 4.305
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.305
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.310?: Above 4.310
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.310
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.300?: Above 4.300
KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.300
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 96% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon over a specified period. The high probability reflects current market expectations based on crude oil dynamics, refinery capacity, and seasonal demand patterns. Gas prices are primarily driven by global crude oil production and geopolitical supply disruptions, alongside seasonal factors like summer driving demand and refinery maintenance schedules. The main uncertainty revolves around whether economic slowdown, increased oil production from key exporters, or demand destruction could pressure prices below this threshold. The critical catalyst will be crude oil pricing trends and any announced changes in strategic petroleum reserve releases or major supply disruptions. Traders are currently pricing meaningful tail risk below $4.46 per gallon, as evidenced by the sharp probability dropoff at higher price levels, suggesting consensus around baseline scenarios but substantial disagreement at the margins.
- ›WTI crude oil is currently trading near $70-80/barrel; a sustained drop below $60 would materially reduce probability of prices staying above $4.44
- ›U.S. refinery utilization rates and any announced maintenance shutdowns in the next 2-3 months directly affect supply and price floor expectations
- ›Summer driving season demand (June-August peak) is a known seasonal tailwind; if demand data shows unexpected weakness, probabilities could shift downward
- ›OPEC+ production decisions and any changes to output quotas announced in upcoming meetings would create immediate repricing
- ›Strategic petroleum reserve levels and any announced purchases or releases by the Department of Energy would signal government market intervention
What moved the line
- May 31Above 4.330↑11pp65→76¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Above 4.340↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 1d
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 1d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 4d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920last 85% · 5d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60last 97% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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