Will average gas prices be above $3.920
Leader sits at 85% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.320
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Above 4.330
Spread
67pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$65K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above $4.3
What moved the line
- May 31Above 4.320↑15pp51→66¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 1d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 1d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 4d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.975Above 4.540last 96% · 6d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60last 97% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (85% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In oil
Related reading
Oil Markets Eye $105 as Iran Risk Premium Holds
Crude oil continues to rally (USO +1.25%) as the probability of WTI hitting $105 by end of June rose 1¢ to 40¢. The decline in the 'oil below $85' contract by 7¢ signals traders are pricing out a near-term resolution to supply concerns.
Oil Markets Reprice as Hormuz Blockade Endgame Nears
WTI crude contracts are seeing aggressive repricing as the probability of the US lifting the Hormuz blockade by June 30 rises to 70%, up 8¢. The 'WTI ↓ $85' May contract collapsed 43¢, while '↓ $80' fell 5¢. Traders are pricing in a potential supply surge if the blockade ends, but the Iran deal timeline remains uncertain, creating volatility.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.