Will Emmerson Mnangagwa leave office next in this set?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Emmerson Mnangagwa leave office next in this set?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This illiquid market on Mnangagwa's tenure shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $392 open interest, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This illiquid market on Mnangagwa's tenure shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $392 open interest, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable. The asymmetric implied yields (65% for Yes versus 2% for No) suggest the market is pricing in significant tail risk, though the low liquidity and wide 5¢ spread warrant caution before treating this as a genuine probability estimate. With 3,182 days to expiry and a modest cliff risk index of 6, this appears to be a speculative long-duration bet with limited price discovery.
Resolution rules
If the President of Zimbabwe is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-EM yes 100