Will Félix Tshisekedi leave office next in this set?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Félix Tshisekedi leave office next in this set?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This market prices Tshisekedi's departure as unlikely at just 10%, yet the Yes position offers an exceptional 103.2% annualized yield over the 3,182-day horizon, suggesting significant underpricing relative to DRC political risk.
Analysis
This market prices Tshisekedi's departure as unlikely at just 10%, yet the Yes position offers an exceptional 103.2% annualized yield over the 3,182-day horizon, suggesting significant underpricing relative to DRC political risk. The zero 24-hour volume and tight 0¢ spread indicate minimal liquidity despite $3,172 open interest, making this a speculative position with limited exit opportunities. The 9 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score (0.409) suggest moderate tail risk, though the long time horizon to 2035 provides substantial buffer for political developments in the DRC.
Resolution rules
If the President of the DRC is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-FT yes 100