Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney Genera.... This contract trades at 67¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market is pricing in a 71% probability of a Trump AG nominee announcement within 75 days, but the extreme 986.9% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity with only $178 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 71% probability of a Trump AG nominee announcement within 75 days, but the extreme 986.9% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity with only $178 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 2-cent spread and modest 239.4% Yes yield suggest minimal conviction despite the high headline probability, indicating this is likely a thin, speculative position rather than a well-arbitraged market. With neutral regime conditions and the price having drifted down just 1 cent over seven days, there's insufficient trading activity to establish true market confidence in either outcome.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has made any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) naming his nominee for Attorney General before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAGANNOUNCE-26-JUL01 yes 100