Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 959.4% and 21.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	959.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	21.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	886%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1939%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.95	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?

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