Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?

The market is pricing in a 34% probability of an AGI announcement by October 2027, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (133% for Yes vs. 35% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 275% suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing given the speculative nature of AGI timelines. The sharp 6-cent price decline over seven days combined with minimal 24-hour volume of just $6 and a wide 9-cent spread indicate low liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions, making this market susceptible to outsized moves from information arrivals occurring at 0.6 per hour. With 532 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in meaningful tail risk around AGI announcements while reflecting genuine disagreement about whether such claims will materialize within the timeframe.

Resolution rules

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade