Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing October 30, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.4K open interest, suggesting minimal trader activity and potential difficulty executing positions at the quoted 63¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.4K open interest, suggesting minimal trader activity and potential difficulty executing positions at the quoted 63¢ price. The 70% implied yield on the "No" side is notably asymmetric compared to the 22.1% "Yes" yield, indicating the market may be underpricing uncertainty around Milei's reelection prospects given Argentina's volatile political environment and nearly three years until the October 2027 election. With a modest 2-point spread and neutral regime score, the market appears fairly priced but lacks the depth needed for confident directional bets.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election in 2027 is Javier Milei, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARGENTINAPRES-27-JMIL yes 100