Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows significant recent bearish movement, with the price collapsing 49¢ to 36¢ over seven days, suggesting deteriorating confidence in Alcaraz maintaining the #1 ranking through end-2026 despite his current dominance.
Analysis
This market shows significant recent bearish movement, with the price collapsing 49¢ to 36¢ over seven days, suggesting deteriorating confidence in Alcaraz maintaining the #1 ranking through end-2026 despite his current dominance. The 20¢ current price reflects only a 20% probability, yet the implied yield of 250.7% on the Yes side indicates substantial mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether Alcaraz can sustain his position over 259 days amid injuries, competition, and ranking volatility. With minimal 24-hour volume ($0) and tight open interest of $1,190, liquidity is severely constrained, making the wide 3¢ spread and extreme yield figures potentially unreliable for actual execution.
Resolution rules
If Carlos Alcaraz is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-CALC yes 100