Will Noah be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Noah be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. Noah is priced at just 14¢ despite holding the #1 spot for 13 consecutive years through 2023, suggesting the market is pricing in a meaningful probability of name rotation—though the 1,876% implied yield on Yes reflects extreme tail risk pricing typical of low-liquidity markets with only $3,057 open interest and a wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
Noah is priced at just 14¢ despite holding the #1 spot for 13 consecutive years through 2023, suggesting the market is pricing in a meaningful probability of name rotation—though the 1,876% implied yield on Yes reflects extreme tail risk pricing typical of low-liquidity markets with only $3,057 open interest and a wide 6¢ spread. The 874% realized volatility and 7¢ price floor over the past week indicate this contract has experienced significant swings, yet with just $100.64 in 24-hour volume and 259 days to resolution, there's minimal liquidity to validate whether this discount reflects genuine forecasting insight or simply illiquidity-driven mispricing.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Noah is the #1 most popular baby boy name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEBOY-26DEC-NOA yes 100