Will Charlotte be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Charlotte be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $135 open interest, making the 3425% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $135 open interest, making the 3425% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading. Charlotte's 4¢ price reflects a 4% probability of becoming the #1 girl name in 2025, which appears conservative given that Charlotte has consistently ranked in the top 3 names for years according to SSA data, though the recent 3¢ price jump in 7 days suggests some accumulating conviction. The 256-day timeframe to resolution and wide 4¢ bid-ask spread create significant execution risk, and the absence of a Polymarket comparison price limits cross-venue arbitrage opportunities.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Charlotte is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-CHA yes 100