Will Charlotte rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Will Charlotte rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2025. Charlotte is priced at just 1¢ on Polymarket versus 4¢ on Kalshi, representing a notable 3-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests either undervaluation on Polymarket or overvaluation on Kalshi.
Analysis
Charlotte is priced at just 1¢ on Polymarket versus 4¢ on Kalshi, representing a notable 3-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests either undervaluation on Polymarket or overvaluation on Kalshi. With zero 24-hour volume despite $7.2M in open interest, the market appears illiquid and potentially stale, making the extreme 1% probability difficult to validate as a true market consensus. Charlotte has held the #1 ranking for multiple consecutive years (2016-2024), making the 1¢ price seem disconnected from historical persistence, though the Kalshi price at 4¢ still reflects substantial skepticism about a repeat.
Also on kalshi at 4¢(Δ -3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” tool. To view the relevant "Female name" list, set the Birth Year to 2025. This market may resolve as soon as the SSA releases its 2025 name data for the specified year. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 or if the SSA does not release the 2025 rankings by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x95c6c80fa7ab22437d85d328f3acb130cd8e63b290d8ad315d1e0b6c22e3727c yes 100