Will Emma be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Emma be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1,875.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues Emma's probability of topping the SSA rankings—she held the #1 spot from 2002-2009 and remains consistently top-5.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1,875.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues Emma's probability of topping the SSA rankings—she held the #1 spot from 2002-2009 and remains consistently top-5. The zero 24-hour volume and $990 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, which likely explains the wide 7¢ spread and inflated yield calculations that don't reflect true market consensus. With 259 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a mispriced niche market where the thin order book has created an artificial discount rather than a genuine probability assessment.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Emma is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-EMM yes 100