Will Mia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Mia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite an astronomical 1,874% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price may be stale or illiquid rather than reflecting genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite an astronomical 1,874% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price may be stale or illiquid rather than reflecting genuine conviction. The dramatic 7-day collapse from 7¢ to 1¢ combined with a realized volatility of 19,533% and cliff risk index of 13 indicates severe price instability, likely driven by thin liquidity ($824 open interest) and a wide 6¢ spread. With resolution tied to SSA data arriving in late 2025 and the market not closing until end of 2026, the extremely asymmetric risk profile (1,874% Yes yield vs. 10.6% No yield) warrants skepticism about whether this reflects actual market consensus or merely an illiquid mispricing.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Mia is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-MIA yes 100