Will Sofia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Sofia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $45 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $45 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The astronomical 3386% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 12140% realized volatility suggests the market has experienced dramatic price swings from minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability discovery. With Sofia historically ranking around #1 in recent years according to SSA data, the 4% probability appears significantly underpriced, though the illiquidity and long 259-day expiry window mean this mispricing may persist without meaningful order flow.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Sofia is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-SOF yes 100