Will Sophia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Sophia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $171 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $171 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The extreme 3,387% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the low price rather than genuine opportunity, as the market lacks sufficient depth to support meaningful positions. With 259 days to resolution and a neutral regime, traders should await either SSA data release or improved liquidity before considering this contract, particularly given the wide 4¢ bid-ask spread.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Sophia is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-SOP yes 100