How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $722 open interest, making the 75¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $722 open interest, making the 75¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—54.8% for Yes versus 362.1% for No—suggest severe mispricing, with the No side offering dramatically outsized returns despite the 75% probability assigned to Yes production exceeding 14 million barrels per day. With 259 days to expiry and a modest 8¢ spread, traders should be cautious about execution risk, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and low cliff risk index (3) indicate no imminent resolution catalysts.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBARRELS-26-14.00 yes 100