How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $830.71 open interest, making the 57¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $830.71 open interest, making the 57¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The sharp 10-cent rally over seven days combined with an unusually high implied yield of 106.2% on the Yes side suggests either recent bullish sentiment on US oil production or a lack of informed traders correcting the price. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the wide 8-cent spread reflects the illiquidity, and traders should be cautious about execution quality if attempting to build a meaningful position.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. produces at least 14.25 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBARRELS-26-14.25 yes 100