How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,291.63, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,291.63, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The 187% annualized yield on the Yes side appears inflated by the low liquidity and 176% realized volatility, suggesting this is a speculative contract rather than an efficient price discovery mechanism. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market's recent 7-point price movement (36¢ to 43¢) indicates modest directional conviction, but the low information arrival rate of 0.6/hour suggests limited market attention to this relatively niche energy production threshold.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. produces at least 14.40 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBARRELS-26-14.40 yes 100