Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before.... This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in only a 14% chance of Women's History Museum legislation passing by year-end 2026, with a notably illiquid position of just $1,144 open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 14% chance of Women's History Museum legislation passing by year-end 2026, with a notably illiquid position of just $1,144 open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 6¢ spread. The extreme 863.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant skepticism about congressional action within the 260-day window, though the recent 2¢ price decline from 16¢ indicates modest deterioration in passage odds. With a moderate cliff risk index of 6 and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position awaiting legislative momentum that hasn't materialized.
Resolution rules
If legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBILLS-SMITH yes 100