Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing October 4, 2026. The market is pricing in a very high probability (89%) that Flávio Bolsonaro will appear on Brazil's 2026 presidential ballot, yet the extreme implied yield disparity—29.2% for Yes versus 1569.4% for No—signals severe illiquidity with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume despite $4,670 open interest).
Analysis
The market is pricing in a very high probability (89%) that Flávio Bolsonaro will appear on Brazil's 2026 presidential ballot, yet the extreme implied yield disparity—29.2% for Yes versus 1569.4% for No—signals severe illiquidity with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume despite $4,670 open interest). The 5¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggest this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where the No side offers asymmetric payoff potential if legal obstacles materialize, though the 171-day timeframe provides reasonable runway for resolution clarity.
Resolution rules
If Flávio Bolsonaro is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRBALLOT-26-FBOL yes 100