Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
95%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
41 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election
Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?: Flávio Bolsonaro
KXBRBALLOT-26-FBOL
Cluster 2
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election
Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?: Renan Santos
KXBRBALLOT-26-RSAN
Analysis
This probability indicates market participants believe there is roughly a two-in-three chance that Renan Santos will appear on the ballot for Brazil's next presidential election. The current 66% level reflects uncertainty about whether legal or regulatory obstacles might prevent his candidacy. Key drivers include his eligibility status under Brazilian electoral law, any pending legal judgments that could affect his candidacy, and decisions by Brazil's electoral authorities regarding registration deadlines. Resolution will depend on formal candidate registration and certification by the Superior Electoral Court, which typically occurs in the months immediately preceding a presidential election. The exact timing depends on when Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled.
- ›Renan Santos' current legal eligibility status under Brazilian electoral code provisions
- ›Any pending court rulings or decisions regarding disqualification grounds in the relevant timeframe
- ›Whether Renan Santos submits candidacy registration documents to electoral authorities by required deadlines
- ›Certification decisions by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court on candidate qualification
- ›Changes in Brazilian electoral law or jurisprudence affecting eligibility criteria between now and election registration
What moved the line
- Aug 22Renan Santos↑43pp52→95¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↑24pp73→97¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Renan Santos↓7pp59→52¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Renan Santos↓5pp64→59¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↓3pp97→94¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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