Will the brent crude oil close price be above 105.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 105.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme pricing anomalies with a 22¢ bid implying only 22% probability for a modest 5.8% move above the current level, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 27,434% is wildly disconnected from the risk-adjusted yield, suggesting severe liquidity constraints and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme pricing anomalies with a 22¢ bid implying only 22% probability for a modest 5.8% move above the current level, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 27,434% is wildly disconnected from the risk-adjusted yield, suggesting severe liquidity constraints and potential mispricing. The minimal open interest of $449.03 against a 22¢ spread indicates this is a thin, illiquid market where the price may not reflect true probabilities, and the dramatic realized volatility of 10,571% combined with a cliff risk index of 4 signals extreme uncertainty in the final 5 days. The 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 23¢ represents an 1,050% swing, which alongside the 2.1 info arrivals per hour, suggests this contract is experiencing significant repricing pressure ahead of expiration.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 105.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T105.99 yes 100