Will the brent crude oil close price be above 71.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 71.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. The market is pricing in an 89% probability that Brent crude will close above $71.99/bbl on April 24, 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (869% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 89% probability that Brent crude will close above $71.99/bbl on April 24, 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (869% for Yes vs. 56,879% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 1,196% suggest significant tail risk is being priced into the No side despite the high Yes probability. With only $17.11 in 24-hour volume and $397.11 open interest against a 10¢ spread, liquidity is thin, and the recent price decline from 95¢ to 88¢ over seven days indicates weakening conviction in the Yes outcome despite the still-high probability. The 5-day expiry combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 8 and 4.3 information arrivals per hour suggests this market could experience sharp repricing as we approach resolution.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 71.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T71.99 yes 100