Will the brent crude oil close price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $36 open interest and $2 in 24-hour volume, making the 93¢ price potentially unreliable despite the modest 30¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $36 open interest and $2 in 24-hour volume, making the 93¢ price potentially unreliable despite the modest 30¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (3512.6% for Yes, 15861% for No) and 1508% realized volatility indicate severe mispricing or distress pricing typical of thin markets, while the recent 17¢ price decline over 7 days suggests weakening conviction in the Yes outcome. With just 5 days to expiry and a strike price 16.8% below current Brent levels, traders should be cautious about the market's predictive value given the negligible liquidity and extreme volatility metrics.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 83.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T83.99 yes 100