Will the brent crude oil close price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes position trading at 92¢ implying 92% probability while the No position offers a staggering 49,739% annualized yield—a massive red flag suggesting the No side is severely undervalued or the market lacks confidence in its own pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes position trading at 92¢ implying 92% probability while the No position offers a staggering 49,739% annualized yield—a massive red flag suggesting the No side is severely undervalued or the market lacks confidence in its own pricing. With only $1,044.54 open interest and $622.24 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is critically thin, making the 92¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation or rapid repricing. The realized volatility of 1,160% and cliff risk index of 7 indicate extreme uncertainty despite the 5-day expiry, and the sharp 7-day price movement from 33¢ to 88¢ suggests recent capitulation buying that may have overshot fair value.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 87.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T87.99 yes 100