Will the brent crude oil close price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with the No side offering a staggering 41,325% implied yield versus just 1,287% for Yes, despite the 83% probability pricing suggesting Yes is heavily favored—a classic sign of liquidity concentration on one side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with the No side offering a staggering 41,325% implied yield versus just 1,287% for Yes, despite the 83% probability pricing suggesting Yes is heavily favored—a classic sign of liquidity concentration on one side. With only $5,964.77 open interest and a 4¢ spread, the market lacks depth, and the 37¢ price surge over 7 days combined with 2,697% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 6 suggests significant uncertainty about whether Brent will reach the 91.99 threshold in just 5 days. The extremely high information arrival rate (2.4/h) and neutral regime indicate market participants are actively reassessing, making this a high-risk, potentially mispriced contract where the No side's absurd yield reflects illiquidity rather than true probability.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 91.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T91.99 yes 100