Will the brent crude oil close price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market exhibits extreme volatility with a realized volatility of 4175% and an implied yield on the "No" side reaching 10,238.7%, suggesting significant pricing uncertainty despite the relatively short 5-day timeframe.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme volatility with a realized volatility of 4175% and an implied yield on the "No" side reaching 10,238.7%, suggesting significant pricing uncertainty despite the relatively short 5-day timeframe. The price has surged 19 cents to 58 cents over seven days, indicating recent bullish momentum, though the modest 24-hour volume of $1,337.30 and tight open interest of $1,650.30 raise liquidity concerns for a contract expiring imminently. The 1.59 vol ratio and neutral regime score suggest the market is pricing in substantial tail risk, making this a speculative position rather than a fundamental bet on crude oil direction.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 95.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T95.99 yes 100