Will the brent crude oil close price be above 97.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 97.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1482% and an astronomical implied yield on the No side at 12,151%, suggesting severe mispricing or tail risk hedging demand.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1482% and an astronomical implied yield on the No side at 12,151%, suggesting severe mispricing or tail risk hedging demand. The price has surged dramatically from 11¢ to 62¢ over seven days with only $1,716.60 in 24-hour volume and $1,825.38 open interest, indicating thin liquidity that amplifies price swings and makes the 63% probability potentially unreliable. With just 5 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this contract faces significant execution risk, and the extremely high information arrival rate of 2.6 events per hour suggests the market is pricing in substantial near-term catalysts that could dramatically shift crude oil prices.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 97.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T97.99 yes 100