Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility metrics (7,132% realized volatility, 8,838% implied yield on Yes) despite a neutral 50¢ midprice, suggesting significant uncertainty around whether Brent crude will exceed the $99.99 threshold in just 5 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility metrics (7,132% realized volatility, 8,838% implied yield on Yes) despite a neutral 50¢ midprice, suggesting significant uncertainty around whether Brent crude will exceed the $99.99 threshold in just 5 days. The sharp price recovery from 6¢ to 46¢ over seven days indicates recent bullish momentum, though thin liquidity ($1,549 daily volume) and a 2.00 vol ratio warrant caution about price reliability. With only a 3¢ spread and high information arrival (2.2 signals/hour), the market appears actively traded but remains highly sensitive to incoming energy data or geopolitical developments.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 99.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T99.99 yes 100