What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 41¢ (41% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 206.5% and 99.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 40¢ price implies a modest 40% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100k by year-end 2026, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 211% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to recent price momentum (up 4¢ in 7 days) and Bitcoin's current proximity to that threshold.

████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

41¢

Bid/Ask 41/42¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,626.95·OI $71,624.17·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC

7-day price463 snapshots · 73 regime

47¢41¢ current

Apr 831¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The 40¢ price implies a modest 40% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100k by year-end 2026, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 211% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to recent price momentum (up 4¢ in 7 days) and Bitcoin's current proximity to that threshold. Liquidity is relatively thin at $1.3k daily volume despite $70k open interest, and the extreme realized volatility of 532% with a vol ratio of 3.38 indicates substantial uncertainty that may not be fully reflected in the current 40¢ valuation. The neutral regime and low cliff risk (2) suggest stable conditions, but the high information arrival rate of 2.2 events per hour warrants caution for rapid repricing.

Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 206.5%

IY (No) 99.7%

Adj IY 201%

CRI 1

RV 357%

VR 2.40

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	206.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	99.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	201%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	357%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.40	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	11.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:46 PM

SF edge 12.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +12¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →