Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET
Leader sits at 14% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before January 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Before December 2026
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin be above $100000
Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before October 2026
KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Before January 2027
KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC
Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by November 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before November 2026
KXBTCMAX100-26-OCT
Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by December 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before December 2026
KXBTCMAX100-26-NOV
Analysis
This market estimates an 13% chance that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 by October 1, 2026—roughly 2.5 months from today. The relatively low probability reflects Bitcoin's distance from that level and the compressed timeframe; Bitcoin would need substantial appreciation in weeks rather than months. Current price levels and historical volatility inform these odds. The main factors pushing probability up would be broad cryptocurrency adoption acceleration or macroeconomic shifts reducing fear of asset volatility. Conversely, regulatory tightening, broader market downturns, or technical breakdowns would pressure odds lower. The October 1 date represents a near-term checkpoint; traders also price a January 1, 2027 threshold at 13%, suggesting modest additional probability mass for the later window. Trading volume on both contracts remains moderate, indicating niche interest rather than mainstream conviction.
- ›Bitcoin's current price relative to $100,000 and historical daily volatility rates determine the statistical likelihood of reaching that level in 2.5 months
- ›Macroeconomic conditions, interest rate expectations, and equity market performance directly influence cryptocurrency risk appetite and capital flows
- ›Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions targeting crypto trading or custody could rapidly shift market sentiment and liquidity
- ›Technical support and resistance levels established over the past 6–12 months shape momentum trader positioning and potential breakout scenarios
- ›October 1 represents an interim deadline; comparing this contract to the January 2027 equivalent ($100k threshold at 13% vs. 5% for October) reveals market expectations for gradual appreciation rather than rapid gains
What moved the line
- Jul 23Before December 2026↓5pp13→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Before January 2027↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Before November 2026↓4pp9→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Before January 2027↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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