Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET
Leader sits at 21% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before January 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Before October 2026
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$24K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
210 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin be above $100000
Analysis
This represents a 37% chance that Bitcoin will trade above $100,000 at the start of October 2026, approximately five months from now. The probability suggests traders see near-term headwinds, evidenced by much lower probabilities for June and July targets (3¢ and 12¢ respectively), indicating they expect Bitcoin to remain below this threshold in the immediate term. However, the 42¢ probability for January 2027 suggests traders expect a meaningful recovery window between October and year-end. Bitcoin's price trajectory depends primarily on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption patterns. Key dates that could shift probabilities include Federal Reserve policy announcements and major cryptocurrency regulatory decisions. The current pricing implies traders view $100,000 as achievable but not highly likely within this specific five-month window, despite it being more probable by early 2027.
- ›Bitcoin's current price relative to $100,000 and historical volatility patterns during similar timeframes
- ›Probability decay across nearer dates (June at 3%, July at 12%, October at 29%) suggests structural bearishness in near-term expectations
- ›Significant jump to 42% by January 2027 indicates traders expect recovery potential in Q4 2026
- ›Trading volume concentration in June and July contracts ($34,663 and $27,441 daily volume) versus October ($10,297) suggests reduced conviction in the October target
- ›Macroeconomic calendar events including interest rate decisions and inflation data between May and October that typically influence risk asset prices
What moved the line
- May 29Before October 2026↑5pp14→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Before January 2027↓5pp28→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Before January 2027↓4pp33→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Before January 2027↓4pp29→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Before October 2026↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (21% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.