What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 753.5% and 27.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 13% probability pricing appears significantly undervalued given Bitcoin's current proximity to $100k and the 18-month timeframe, with the Yes position offering an extraordinary 942% implied yield that suggests substantial skepticism from market participants.

███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

17¢

Bid/Ask 16/17¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $10,379.45·OI $391,961.94·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCMAX100-26-JUNE

7-day price274 snapshots · 124 regime

19¢16¢ current

Apr 89¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The 13% probability pricing appears significantly undervalued given Bitcoin's current proximity to $100k and the 18-month timeframe, with the Yes position offering an extraordinary 942% implied yield that suggests substantial skepticism from market participants. The extreme realized volatility of 1539% and vol ratio of 4.82 indicate severe pricing uncertainty, though the modest $10k daily volume and $363k open interest reveal thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information arrives at the elevated 2.1 events per hour rate. The market's neutral regime and relatively tight 2¢ spread mask the underlying tension between the high-yield opportunity and the cliff risk index of 7, suggesting traders are pricing in a binary outcome rather than a smooth probability distribution.

Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 01/05/2026 03:00 PM and before July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 753.5%

IY (No) 27.3%

Adj IY 706%

CRI 5

RV 601%

VR 2.11

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	753.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	27.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	706%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	601%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.11	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	11.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:32:01 PM

SF edge 12.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +12¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCMAX100-26-JUNE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →