What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 27¢ (27% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 1, 2026. 162 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 608.1% and 83.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. The market is pricing Bitcoin above $100k by October 2026 at just 27% probability despite an extraordinary 544% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant risk premium or market skepticism about BTC reaching this level within 16 months from current prices.

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27¢

Bid/Ask 27/28¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,008.8·OI $100,778.61·Closes Oct 1, 2026·162d remaining

KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP

7-day price126 snapshots · 71 regime

36¢27¢ current

Apr 820¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

The market is pricing Bitcoin above $100k by October 2026 at just 27% probability despite an extraordinary 544% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant risk premium or market skepticism about BTC reaching this level within 16 months from current prices. Volume is thin at $1,627 daily against $99k open interest, and the 7-day rally from 23¢ to 29¢ (26% move) indicates recent bullish momentum that hasn't substantially shifted the overall probability, possibly reflecting resistance from sophisticated traders. The 2.59 vol ratio and 600% realized volatility signal elevated uncertainty, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias in broader market conditions.

Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Oct 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 608.1%

IY (No) 83.2%

Adj IY 586%

CRI 3

RV 339%

VR 1.46

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	608.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	83.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	586%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	339%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.46	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	10.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:31:32 PM

SF edge 11.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +11¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →