Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 30¢ (30% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 430.5% and 47.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	430.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	47.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	327%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	672%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.26	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	14.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.24	Liquidity Availability Score

Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

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