What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 57¢ (57% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 112.8% and 182.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has declined 6 cents over seven days to 61¢, reflecting reduced conviction that Bitcoin stays below $60,000 by year-end 2026, despite the 61% implied probability still favoring the Yes side.

███████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

57¢

Bid/Ask 56/57¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $13,544.11·OI $234,521.89·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-60000.00

7-day price247 snapshots · 80 regime

70¢56¢ current

Apr 852¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has declined 6 cents over seven days to 61¢, reflecting reduced conviction that Bitcoin stays below $60,000 by year-end 2026, despite the 61% implied probability still favoring the Yes side. The No position offers an exceptional 220.3% implied yield with 259 days to expiry, suggesting the market may be underpricing Bitcoin's upside potential given current spot prices near $60,000 and the high 128% realized volatility. Liquidity is moderate at $215,732 open interest with a tight 1¢ spread, though the 1.36 volatility ratio and neutral regime indicate uncertainty about directional conviction.

Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $60000.00 starting Jan 1, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 112.8%

IY (No) 182.6%

Adj IY 179%

CRI 1

RV 222%

VR 2.09

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	112.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	182.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	179%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	222%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.09	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	9.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:49:06 PM

SF edge 10.0¢ noObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +10¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-60000.00 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →