Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely low probability of a BoC rate hike exceeding 25bps by June 2026, with the Yes contract trading at just 5¢ and implying only a 5% chance of occurrence.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low probability of a BoC rate hike exceeding 25bps by June 2026, with the Yes contract trading at just 5¢ and implying only a 5% chance of occurrence. The unusually high implied yield of 12,706.8% on the Yes side reflects the extreme illiquidity and wide 3¢ spread, with minimal open interest of $322 and zero 24-hour volume, making this contract highly speculative and potentially mispriced. With 55 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, the market appears to be pricing in a dovish BoC stance, though the thin liquidity warrants caution in interpreting this as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of >25bps at its Jun 10, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUN-H26 yes 100