Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 3, 2027. The 1,857% implied yield on the Yes side reflects an extremely unlikely outcome—Maine would need to have a closer race than all other 2026 Senate contests, a statistically improbable scenario that justifies the 10¢ price.
Analysis
The 1,857% implied yield on the Yes side reflects an extremely unlikely outcome—Maine would need to have a closer race than all other 2026 Senate contests, a statistically improbable scenario that justifies the 10¢ price. Volume is thin at $47 over 24 hours with a $4,988 open interest, suggesting limited market conviction and liquidity concerns for meaningful position sizing. The 4¢ spread and stable 7-day price action indicate the market has settled into a consensus view, though the 13 cliff risk index warrants caution given the binary nature of margin comparisons across multiple races.
Resolution rules
If Maine has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ME yes 100