Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 3, 2027. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 2¢ spread despite modest $3,383 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around the 5¢ price.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 2¢ spread despite modest $3,383 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around the 5¢ price. The implied yield of 2,655% for Yes positions reflects the extraordinarily low probability assigned to North Carolina having the tightest race among all 2026 Senate elections, though this yield is likely theoretical given the thin liquidity. With 261 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears underexplored and potentially mispriced, though the high cliff risk index (19) indicates significant binary outcome sensitivity.
Resolution rules
If North Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NC yes 100