Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the next Colombian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the next Colombian presidential election?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2027. De la Espriella's contract has surged from 13¢ to 21¢ over seven days, reflecting a 62% price appreciation that outpaces the modest $1,558.64 daily volume, suggesting concentrated buying pressure or new information arrival at 1.3 events per hour.
Analysis
De la Espriella's contract has surged from 13¢ to 21¢ over seven days, reflecting a 62% price appreciation that outpaces the modest $1,558.64 daily volume, suggesting concentrated buying pressure or new information arrival at 1.3 events per hour. The extreme 335% implied yield on Yes contracts against a 23.7% yield on No, combined with 588% realized volatility and a 3.22 vol ratio, indicates significant uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the $69,387 open interest provides reasonable liquidity for a candidate with only 20% implied probability. With 410 days until the 2026 Colombian election and a tight 1¢ spread, this market warrants monitoring for whether the recent rally reflects genuine shifts in political dynamics or speculative positioning.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Colombian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Abelardo de la Espriella, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26-AESP yes 100