Will Paloma Valencia win the next Colombian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will Paloma Valencia win the next Colombian presidential election?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2027. The market prices Valencia at 44¢ with a notably asymmetric yield structure—the Yes side offers 123.1% annualized return versus 64.5% for No—suggesting traders view downside risk as more concentrated despite the neutral regime score.
Analysis
The market prices Valencia at 44¢ with a notably asymmetric yield structure—the Yes side offers 123.1% annualized return versus 64.5% for No—suggesting traders view downside risk as more concentrated despite the neutral regime score. With only $76.77 in 24-hour volume against $25.6k open interest, liquidity is thin relative to position size, and the 2¢ spread is tight, indicating limited active trading despite 410 days to expiration. The recent 2¢ price uptick (40¢ to 42¢) combined with the high Yes-side yield implies some conviction among holders, though the low volume makes this vulnerable to sharp repricing on news about Colombian politics or Valencia's campaign momentum.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Colombian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Paloma Valencia, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26-PVAL yes 100