Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2027. This market prices de la Espriella at just 3¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,881% for Yes positions, reflecting extremely low liquidity ($11,757 open interest) and minimal trading activity ($92.16 in 24h volume).
Analysis
This market prices de la Espriella at just 3¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,881% for Yes positions, reflecting extremely low liquidity ($11,757 open interest) and minimal trading activity ($92.16 in 24h volume). The 0¢ spread and flat 7-day price movement suggest the market is essentially frozen at a floor price, making this more of a lottery ticket than an actively discovered probability, with the 32 Cliff Risk Index indicating potential resolution complications given Colombia's political landscape.
Resolution rules
If Abelardo de la Espriella wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOLOMBIAPRESR1-26MAY31-AESP yes 100