Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027?

The market is pricing a 28% probability of a Tesla-SpaceX combination by April 2027, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (350% on Yes vs. 31% on No) signal severe illiquidity with only $5,041.80 open interest and $2 in 24-hour volume, making the price potentially unreliable. The 7-day movement from 21¢ to 23¢ suggests modest recent optimism, though the 5¢ spread and low volume indicate traders should expect wide slippage on any meaningful position. With 349 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme yield asymmetry reflects thin order books rather than strong fundamental conviction about the deal's likelihood.

Resolution rules

If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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