What is the current probability for "Will DoorDash, Inc. report above 900 million Total Orders in Q1 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 95¢ (95% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 31, 2026. 92 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will DoorDash, Inc. report above 900 million Total Orders in Q1 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 12.2% and 12801.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will DoorDash, Inc. report above 900 million Total Orders in Q1 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will DoorDash, Inc. report above 900 million Total Orders in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing July 31, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (97%) that DoorDash will exceed 900 million orders in Q1 2026, with the Yes contract yielding only 14.4% despite 106 days to expiry—suggesting strong consensus around this threshold.

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95¢

Bid/Ask 97/99¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $824.37·OI $13,366.04·Closes Jul 31, 2026·92d remaining

KXDASHORDERS-26JUL-900

7-day price39 snapshots · 28 regime

98¢97¢ current

Apr 1491¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (97%) that DoorDash will exceed 900 million orders in Q1 2026, with the Yes contract yielding only 14.4% despite 106 days to expiry—suggesting strong consensus around this threshold. The No side shows an anomalous 8295.6% implied yield, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity on that leg, though the $8,285 open interest and tight 1¢ spread suggest the Yes position is well-established. The sharp 4-point price rise over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 24 warrants caution, as this could reflect either genuine confidence in DoorDash's growth trajectory or crowded positioning vulnerable to reversal.

Resolution rules

If DoorDash, Inc. reports above 900 million Total Orders in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12.2%

IY (No) 12801.2%

Adj IY 12537%

CRI 32

RV 90%

VR 2.54

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12801.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12537%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	90%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.54	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 9:36:55 AM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 9:23:14 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXDASHORDERS-26JUL-900 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →