Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 4.8 million gold subs in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.8 million
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above 4.9 million
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$271
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 4, 2027
206 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $18 billion event contracts total trading volume in Q3 2026?: Above $18 billion
KXHOOD-26NOVECVOL-18000000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.4 million funded customers in Q3 2026?: Above 29.4 million
KXHOOD-26NOVFUNDED-29400000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 5.1 million gold subs in Q3 2026?: Above 5.1 million
KXHOOD-26NOVGOLDSUBS-5100000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 5 million gold subs in Q3 2026?: Above 5 million
KXHOOD-26NOVGOLDSUBS-5000000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 4.9 million gold subs in Q3 2026?: Above 4.9 million
KXHOOD-26NOVGOLDSUBS-4900000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 4.8 million gold subs in Q3 2026?: Above 4.8 million
KXHOOD-26NOVGOLDSUBS-4800000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.5 million funded customers in Q3 2026?: Above 29.5 million
KXHOOD-26NOVFUNDED-29500000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.3 million funded customers in Q3 2026?: Above 29.3 million
KXHOOD-26NOVFUNDED-29300000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.2 million funded customers in Q3 2026?: Above 29.2 million
KXHOOD-26NOVFUNDED-29200000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.1 million funded customers in Q3 2026?: Above 29.1 million
KXHOOD-26NOVFUNDED-29100000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29 million funded customers in Q3 2026?: Above 29 million
KXHOOD-26NOVFUNDED-29000000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.9 million funded customers in Q3 2026?: Above 28.9 million
KXHOOD-26NOVFUNDED-28900000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.8 million funded customers in Q3 2026?: Above 28.8 million
KXHOOD-26NOVFUNDED-28800000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $22 billion event contracts total trading volume in Q3 2026?: Above $22 billion
KXHOOD-26NOVECVOL-22000000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $20 billion event contracts total trading volume in Q3 2026?: Above $20 billion
KXHOOD-26NOVECVOL-20000000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $16 billion event contracts total trading volume in Q3 2026?: Above $16 billion
KXHOOD-26NOVECVOL-16000000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $14 billion event contracts total trading volume in Q3 2026?: Above $14 billion
KXHOOD-26NOVECVOL-14000000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $12 billion event contracts total trading volume in Q3 2026?: Above $12 billion
KXHOOD-26NOVECVOL-12000000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $10 billion event contracts total trading volume in Q3 2026?: Above $10 billion
KXHOOD-26NOVECVOL-10000000000
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 41% chance that Robinhood will report more than 4.8 million gold subscribers in Q1 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty around Robinhood's ability to grow its premium subscription base, which depends on customer acquisition and retention rates. Key drivers include the competitive landscape for retail investing platforms and broader trends in retail investor engagement. The resolution will occur when Robinhood releases its Q1 2026 earnings report, typically in late April or early May 2026, providing actual subscriber figures. Movement in this probability would depend on Robinhood's quarterly user growth metrics, company guidance, and market conditions affecting retail trading participation.
- ›Robinhood's historical gold subscriber growth rate and quarterly additions
- ›Q1 2026 performance relative to competitor offerings and market conditions for retail investment platforms
- ›Company guidance or forward-looking statements about subscriber targets during earnings calls
- ›Changes in retail investor participation and account opening trends in early 2026
- ›Pricing, feature updates, or marketing initiatives Robinhood implements to drive premium subscriptions
What moved the line
- Aug 3Above 28.8 million↑56pp26→82¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above $10 billion↑24pp66→90¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above $12 billion↑17pp65→82¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Above $18 billion↓8pp31→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above $14 billion↑8pp61→69¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in markets
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 9% · 0d
- Where are oil prices heading?last 60% · 0d
- Will OpenAI go public?last 14% · 0d
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 39% · 0d
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 0last 61% · 52d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In markets
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.