Will Carvana Co. report Above 180000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above 190000
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
above 195000
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Aug 28, 2026
38 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Carvana Co. report above
Will Carvana Co. report above 190000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?: above 190000
KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P190000
Will Carvana Co. report above 205000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?: above 205000
KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P205000
Will Carvana Co. report above 195000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?: above 195000
KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P195000
Will Carvana Co. report above 200000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?: above 200000
KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P200000
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets assess an 85% chance Carvana will exceed 190,000 retail vehicle sales in Q2 2026. The contract structure shows confidence clustering around the 190,000-195,000 range, with much lower probabilities for higher thresholds (200,000+ at just 19%). The pricing reflects Carvana's recent operational trends and capacity constraints. Resolution depends entirely on Carvana's Q2 2026 earnings report, which will disclose actual retail unit sales. Key drivers of the current level include Carvana's recent quarterly performance trajectory, inventory availability, consumer demand conditions, and macroeconomic factors affecting used vehicle purchases. Market participants are pricing in a meaningful gap between the 190,000 threshold and higher sales levels, suggesting uncertainty about whether Carvana can significantly exceed base expectations despite operational improvements.
- ›Carvana's Q1 2026 retail sales results and reported sales trajectory heading into Q2
- ›Current market capacity and inventory levels relative to historical production and delivery capabilities
- ›Used vehicle market demand conditions and competitive pricing environment in Q2 2026
- ›The sharp probability drop from 85% (above 190k) to 19% (above 200k) indicates consensus skepticism about substantially higher performance
- ›Q2 2026 earnings release date will definitively resolve the contract based on Carvana's SEC filings
What moved the line
- Jul 20above 190000↑3pp86→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21above 195000↑3pp75→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15above 200000↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18above 200000↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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