Will Lee Murphy be the Republican nominee for Delaware's at-large congressional district?
KXDEALR-26-LMUR · closes Sep 15, 2027 · 519 days remaining
Price
Last
0¢
Bid
40¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$0
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 105.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 46.9% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.10 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 48% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
0 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 12:53:47 AM
About this market
If Lee Murphy wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Delaware at-large congressional district House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXDEALR-26-LMUR yes 100