Will at least 5 of the following 6 Democratic candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: James Talarico in Texas, Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Josh Turek in Iowa, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota?
KXDEMSENATEPRIMARYCOMBO-26NOV03 · closes Nov 3, 2026 · 203 days remaining
Price
Last
27¢
Bid
23¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$20.2
Open Interest
$21,088.2
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 603.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 53.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.17 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 249% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
16 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 12:51:57 AM
About this market
If at least 5 of the following 6 Democratic candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: James Talarico in Texas, Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Josh Turek in Iowa, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
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