Will the Democratic party win 242-245 House seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will the Democratic party win 242-245 House seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market displays an extreme yield asymmetry with Yes contracts offering 921% annualized return versus just 17% for No, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues a narrow Democratic seat range that historically represents a competitive outcome.
Analysis
This market displays an extreme yield asymmetry with Yes contracts offering 921% annualized return versus just 17% for No, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues a narrow Democratic seat range that historically represents a competitive outcome. The thin $230 daily volume and modest $11.96k open interest indicate low liquidity despite the 291-day runway to resolution, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The recent price recovery from 11¢ to 12¢ combined with a moderate 7 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as the specific 242-245 seat band is narrow enough that even small polling shifts could trigger sharp repricing closer to expiry.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic party has between 242-245 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDHOUSESEATS-27-244 yes 100